Improving My Blackjack Play Using Data

In my day job I rely on data for most of my key digital marketing decisions so when I was struggling earlier this year with my blackjack results I decided to turn to the data and see what I could find.  The KPI for this project is pretty simple – money won/lost at live casino blackjack.

To get to the underlying data that led to that final result I realized I needed to dig a little deeper and analyze my play on a shoe-by-shoe basis.  In January I started tracking my results per shoe on my favorite app in my phone’s notes as well as every shoe played in a live casino.

With 4 months of results that spanned hundreds of digital shoes and dozens of live shoes I took the data and started crunching numbers.  The first thing I realized was that I needed to stick with a game longer – when I bought in for slightly more money and backed that buy-in up with a re-buy of 50-75% of the original amount on one table I had a stronger chance of hitting a strong run and earning money than buying in for less and hoping to win in shorter bursts by switching tables once that amount was gone.  I also learned that my style of play can lead to several winning or losing shoes in a row, but the variability isn’t very large between any given shoe so I should be able to weather a couple of bad shoes and still have the opportunity to make money.  Interestingly I didn’t see much difference between my play and results in surrender games vs. no surrender allowed – which is the only option at my local native American casinos – this was fairly surprising to me.

Armed with this data I’ve made a nice run since my poor results in 2016 and rough start to 2017 and now I’m only a couple yards from break-even for this year.  Of course now that I think I have some things figured out there is a great chance I’ll go on a terrible run which sends me right back to the drawing board.  At least now I’ve got some more data behind my play and I’ll keep working the numbers to deliver positive ROI on my blackjack play.

My First WSOP Event (Spoiler: I Didn’t Win)

I have, what I believe to be, a similar bucket list of most avid gamblers, and one of those items is to play in the main event of the World Series of Poker.  Yes, I’m a blackjack player, but I like to dabble in other casino games and no-limit hold-em tournaments are always a fun distraction.  At some point when the kids are out of the house I’ll cash in some of my 401k money and pony-up $10K to play in the main event.  Until that happens the best option I could find was a $365 1-day event at the WSOP Circuit event at Harrah’s Cherokee.

I headed up for a Saturday night with 3 buddies and since we arrived a couple of hours early I had to play a few hands of blackjack to kill time.  I played at a $50 table in their high-limit room which had 8 tables open all night as well as 8 $100 limit tables.  I had a nice opening run which earned enough to pay for my tournament entry plus a couple bucks for drinks.

This casino is apparently the most profitable in the Caesars chain which I can believe based on the number of players.  In addition to 16 full high-limit blackjack tables they also had 6 craps tables at $15 or above without a spot open, and nearly every other table and slot section was close to capacity.  The volume and high-dollar play was impressive.

After the quick win at blackjack I was feeling good going into my WSOP debut so I headed to table 2 seat 8 to start my run.  Once I entered the room it was a bit overwhelming.  The tourney was held in their events center where once-famous rockers and country singers play every other weekend.  Picture a hockey rink sized floor with a small stage above the floor, and now imagine that scene completely filled with poker tables…plus more tables in the hallways and waiting areas outside the main hall.  It was stunning.

I headed on to the stage to find table 2 and grabbed my seat a few minutes early.  One of the players was clearly a regular in these events as he had ‘bagged’ for the main event on an earlier day.  Everyone else seemed to be more like me and we started playing pretty much by the book.  It took about 30 minutes for me to pick up anything worth playing (KK from big blind) and of course the entire table folds except the small blind who only called then folded to a min bet after the flop.  After that it was fairly routine up and down and I made it to the first break a few chips ahead of the original stack.

Shortly after the break I had several playable hands in a row and made a slight positive run.  Then the wheels started to come off.  I picked up A10 suited and my 3BB bet was called by one other player.  Ace plus 2 nothing cards on the flop so I bet again, getting a call, 4 on the turn, I bet again and get a call, another nothing card on the river and I’m feeling strong so I check to induce a bet and sure enough he bets so I call and he flips over an A4 off-suit…OUCH.  I’m now crippled and hang around for a few more hands, fight off an all-in for almost nothing then go all-in w/Q10 suited vs. 6s and the 6s hold-up.

My dreams of making it big in poker were quickly dashed, but it was a lot of fun.  I’m going to delay any hopes of the main event until $10k isn’t as big a deal, but when the circuit comes back through I could be talked into playing again.  Until then I’m going to stick to blackjack as my gambling fix.

 

March Madness: Weekly Blackjack Casino Trips

This has been another interesting spring for me.  For the 3rd straight year I’m in the job change process.  The last two years have been on my terms and this year is due to a potential sale of our start-up.  Don’t get too excited, unfortunately I’m not cashing out with a big check and riding off into the blackjack sunset.  This is a distressed sale and we’ll likely come out ahead, but short-term we’re in limbo.

This suspended state of operations has meant that I’ve had much less day-to-day activity while the lawyers and finance folks fight through all the details.  Of course, whenever I have any potential downtime I look for the opportunity to play some cards.

This Thursday will be my 3rd straight week with a casino trip.  I’ve been working remotely on Thursdays starting with March 2, National Blackjack Day.  After a solid day I realized that I could make the 2 hour drive to my closest casino, Harrah’s Cherokee River Valley Casino, play a couple hours of blackjack and be home at my usual dinner time without a lot of hassle.

I know that once this deal closes the wrinkle in my workload will change dramatically and I’ll have to rely on conference trips to Vegas to get my gamble on in the near future so I’m trying to make the most of my time right now.

I have learned that with regular trips to a casino money and time management is critical and I need to be selective in my game.  The patience has paid off thus far with solid, but not spectacular wins on the past 2 trips.  I also have learned that stopping while ahead is key since my time is limited I don’t have the luxury of waiting for the next big run, so I need to cash out once I’ve made a nice profit rather than playing until I make a huge score.  Playing regularly is more about hitting singles and doubles than shooting for the grand slam.

I’ll keep my string going as long as possible and hopefully become a better blackjack player from the experience.

My Wallet’s Gone! My Wallet’s…Oh Wait

As a huge Seinfeld fan, Morty yelling like a madman when he thinks his wallet was stolen at the doctor’s office always makes me laugh.  Of course when I actually thought I lost money – and not from the dealer pulling 5’s for his 16’s all night – at the casino and had a similar reaction it wasn’t nearly as funny.

I had been celebrating National Blackjack Day at Harrah’s Cherokee Valley River casino on March 2 (3:2) and having a good day.  I played at the $50 high-limit room by myself and doubled my money then gave back a bit before deciding to cash out and head back home.  I chipped up and headed to the cage to cash out with a slight detour to watch the free slots tournament.

Sidebar, those slot tourneys are fun people watching.  Bunch of old folks smashing machines in search of a bunch of free rewards points.  Anyway back to the story.

After a few minutes of people watching I reached into my pocket to cash my chips and noticed there wasn’t any cash.  Usually when I gamble I keep my cash in a front pocket so a) I don’t have to sit on my wallet and b) it’s easier to access.  Anyway nothing was there, nothing in my back pockets and just my normal few bucks in my wallet.  Oh crap.  Did I drop it when I pulled out my phone?  Did I leave it at the table?

I trace my steps, ask my dealer, do another lap, check all my pockets and wallet again and still nothing.  I walked back to the table and asked the pit boss if he’d help me out.  He wasn’t warm and fuzzy to start with and this wasn’t his idea of fun even though there was literally no one else in high limit.  So head of security comes down, I repeat my story, he calls the eye in the sky and they start to rewind tape.

I keep talking to the dealer, look under the tables, do another lap, then do the check of all locations again and then…D’OH…I had folded my extra bills and slid them on the inside pocket of my wallet.  I don’t recall doing it, not just today, but ever doing it before in my life.

Now I’m embarrassed as hell.  Immediately tell the security guy, who was GREAT by the way, both in trying to help and making me feel better about being a pain.  Tell the dealer and pit boss who rolls his eyes, apologize to everyone for being a moron, drop a $20 on their table, cash my chips at the cage, and get in my car as fast as possible.

So my National Blackjack Day was mildly profitable and pretty damn embarrassing.

National Blackjack Day Interview with High Roller Radio

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts it has been a pleasure getting to know many of the people out there who have similar interests as I do in the gaming industry.  Recently I was lucky enough to be interviewed on High Roller Radio about National Blackjack Day.

We had a fun conversation about 3:2 blackjack, #NationalBlackjackDay and the ways casino companies can improve their experience for everyone, including millennials.  If you have a moment take a listen and let me know what you think!

Also, while you are there check out some of the other fun interviews and content from some great experts and characters in the gambling world.

Blackjack Day Goes International

Today I had a great conversation with High Roller Radio about 3:2 National Blackjack Day as well as some general gaming industry trends.  He is a strong industry advocate with a passion for Poker and all things gaming.  Since he is based in Canada I’m chalking this up to an international expansion of #NationalBlackjackDay.

If you’d like to hear our conversation you can listen here and if you’d like to hear more interesting people than me interviewed about gaming you can visit High Roller Radio to find all of this great content.

As always I’m impressed with the people who have personal interest and passion for the gaming industry and it was a pleasure to take part in this interview.

My Idea to Bring Millennials to Casino Gaming (Not VR, eSports or Video Games)

Holy hell, if I never read another article about millennials and gambling it would be great by me.  And yet here I am writing one.

So let’s get to it, how can I, an unknown blogger who doesn’t work in the industry add any value to this conversation?  I’m a digital and brand marketing strategy guy by trade and so I look at this as a strategic marketing question rather than a gaming issue.

What do millennials want?  I don’t really know.  I’m GenX, my kids aren’t old enough to be millennials, but I do know how I would create an experience that may make the gaming experience more attractive to those who will be the next generation of players.

Experience.  That is the key word.  When between 3 to 8 millennial friends get together and say let’s go to Vegas (or another gaming destination) all of them can have an experience at the pool, or the club, or a show, or shooting guns, or driving exotic cars or picking up girls/guys, etc with ease.  But how many of them can have an experience at a craps table or blackjack or roulette without any friction?  One, maybe two?  Maybe it is the money, or not knowing the rules, or losing too quickly, or feeling insecure, or who knows why, but there are too many potential barriers which don’t exist with other activities.

So here goes.  Let’s make gaming an experience.  If you have 3+ people under 35 in your group staying at my casino you get to have an hour behind the tables – not the ‘free gaming sessions from 11-noon’ but a real experience.  You get your own private tables to deal blackjack to your friends, you get to rake the craps dice, you get to spin the ball in the roulette wheel.  Holy shit I want to spin the ball!!!  But wait, random blog guy, with no experience in the industry we can’t do that!  There are rules, and millennials want to play Frogger, and what about the social media, this will never work.

Whatever, you are smarter than me, figure it out.  Do this with Total Reward credits, oh snap, you just signed up a bunch of millennials to your rewards program!  Screw Frogger or whatever the hot game is, by the time you put it in your casino the kids will have moved on to the next game and you’ll have a bunch of lame old games on your floor.  And can you think of something more Insta-friendly than a pic of you spinning the roulette ball for your friends at your own private table in Vegas?

And after your super-friendly staff has made this experience amazing for their new friends, guess what, they will feel really confident in their ability to play these games with real money using the credits they just earned on their rewards cards.  And maybe they’ll tell their friends about it and when they come back to see their favorite DJ this summer.  They can tell their friends they once dealt blackjack and they will show them how to play after they hit the pool.

So there you go.  You’re welcome casino industry.  And when you are ready to run the test case I’ll be happy to be your marketing strategy consultant.