In my day job I rely on data for most of my key digital marketing decisions so when I was struggling earlier this year with my blackjack results I decided to turn to the data and see what I could find. The KPI for this project is pretty simple – money won/lost at live casino blackjack.
To get to the underlying data that led to that final result I realized I needed to dig a little deeper and analyze my play on a shoe-by-shoe basis. In January I started tracking my results per shoe on my favorite app in my phone’s notes as well as every shoe played in a live casino.
With 4 months of results that spanned hundreds of digital shoes and dozens of live shoes I took the data and started crunching numbers. The first thing I realized was that I needed to stick with a game longer – when I bought in for slightly more money and backed that buy-in up with a re-buy of 50-75% of the original amount on one table I had a stronger chance of hitting a strong run and earning money than buying in for less and hoping to win in shorter bursts by switching tables once that amount was gone. I also learned that my style of play can lead to several winning or losing shoes in a row, but the variability isn’t very large between any given shoe so I should be able to weather a couple of bad shoes and still have the opportunity to make money. Interestingly I didn’t see much difference between my play and results in surrender games vs. no surrender allowed – which is the only option at my local native American casinos – this was fairly surprising to me.
Armed with this data I’ve made a nice run since my poor results in 2016 and rough start to 2017 and now I’m only a couple yards from break-even for this year. Of course now that I think I have some things figured out there is a great chance I’ll go on a terrible run which sends me right back to the drawing board. At least now I’ve got some more data behind my play and I’ll keep working the numbers to deliver positive ROI on my blackjack play.