Not so Fast: Non-Surrender Shoe a Big Winner

In my last post I gloated about how much superior playing surrender strategy was in blackjack.  I ran a test shoe with the cards in the exact same order once with surrender rules and the 2nd round without surrender.  In that session the surrender round was $250 better in terms of final results.

As we all know, one shoe does not make for a definitive result.  So I ran the same test again last night – playing a shoe with surrender and non-surrender rules with the cards and wagering kept consistent for both.

The results this time around were firmly in the favor of the non-surrender strategy.  Using surrender the first run through the shoe resulted in 3 surrender hands and a final result of a net $75 loss from the starting $300 buy-in.

Keeping that 6-deck shoe of cards in the same order and betting values equal without using surrender the final result was a $205 win or +$280 above the non-surrender deck.

In two duplicate tests on separate shoes the results were almost exactly opposite.  I will continue to run this test whenever I have down time available to keep a running tally.  My hypothesis stands that surrender strategy is superior, but I will say that this shoe has allowed a little doubt to creep into my mind.


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