(Bet) Size Matters

I was playing by myself at a $25 table yesterday and a young guy sat down to join me.  I almost picked up my chips and walked, but he seemed like a good kid and he only bought in with $100 so I figured he wouldn’t last long enough to impact my game.  I should have gone with my gut and walked away from the table, but that is a post for another day.

The kid took all the good cards, he was on a strong run and I was not getting anything decent.  My stack was dwindling and the kid was barely making money.  At first I couldn’t figure it out, how was he winning most of the hands and not making any real money.  After a few more hands I realized he had never switched his bet size from the minimum.

I don’t meddle in other people’s blackjack play at the table unless they ask for advice so I kept my mouth shut and watched.  The kid’s luck started to turn and as he lost a few hands in a row including a double and he was back down to his original buy-in.

If my young playing partner had played using a Momentum Blackjack ™ bet sizing strategy he would have likely walked away with a nice win.  By staying with his minimum bet size for the entire session he didn’t maximize his winning run and when things turned sour he was losing as much as he won on the way up so he walked away without the win he deserved.

I didn’t play this table very well either so maybe I can’t blame the kid for the way he played, but my guess is he wasn’t self-aware enough to even realize the error of his ways so hopefully he gets some direction before his next session so he has a better chance of winning.

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